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Terna Energy Q2/H1’19 Preview

Terna Energy is expected to announce Q2/H1’19 results on August 29th after the closing of the market.

Our Estimates: We project Q2’19 group sales to stand at €67m, flat y-o-y, with the decline in construction revenues offsetting RES division’s increase. In particular, we expect RES revenues to rise by 13% y-o-y to €55m, attributed to the 4% higher y-o-y installed capacity in wind parks, although we assume lower load factors on worse wind conditions. On the other hand, we project construction sales to fall to €0.6m from €6.5m in the previous year, while we expect electricity trading revenues to rise to €4.5m from €0.6m last year and concessions sales (e-ticketing and waste management) to fall by 38%.

Regarding profitability, we anticipate group EBITDA to retreat by 7% y-o-y to €34m, mainly attributed to the construction segment, while we expect pressure on RES division’s margin as well. As a result net income is seen at €5.3m, from €6.9m last year.

In terms of H1’19, we project group sales to reach €150m, up 8% y-o-y, group EBITDA to increase by 7% y-o-y to €87.5m and net income to rise by 54% y-o-y, at €28m.

Note that Terna Energy’s RES portfolio currently includes 1,011MW (or 1,032MW in nominal terms), vs. 986MW in Q2’18. Furthermore, the company has acquired a 200MW wind farm in Texas, USA, which should have started contributing this month. On top, it has currently c280MW under construction (120MW in Evoia, Greece and 158MW in Texas, USA).

Our View: Terna Energy’s investment plan is well on track, offering a strong earnings’ growth potential, while the geographical diversification of its RES portfolio implies higher load factors vs. domestic peers. We remain positive on the stock.

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