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Hellenic Exchanges (Q3/9M’19 review)

The company posted an improved set of Q3/9M’19 set of financial results beating our estimates on the top line by some €3.66mn. On a 9M basis, Sales before HCMC fee advanced by 28.2% to €25.54mn thanks to better than expected revenues from settlement and exchange services.

  • This divergence in estimates fed through the entire P&L leading to a miss in all lines i.e. EBITDA, EBIT, EBT and NET income.
  • Total operating expenses including ancillary services of the Group in 9M 2019 decreased by 0.6% to €13.5m compared to €13.6m in 9M 2018 and against our estimate of €13.3mn.
  • Personnel costs decreased by 0.5% y-o-y to €7.6mn (we were calling for €7.3mn) while total other costs came in line with our call at €5.90mn (we were estimating €6.05mn).

EBITDA almost doubled to €11.16mn vs €5.58mn in the 9M’18 period, EBIT skyrocketed 166% to € 8.05mn (against €5.2mn which was our estimate and vs €3mn in 9M’18). Pretax profit came in at €8.3mn from €3.37mn in the respective period of 2018 (and beating by far our call for €5.53mn). On a final notch Net profit was 157% higher y-o-y to €3.57mn (we were guessing €3.6mn), beating by far last year’s €2.29mn figure.

A satisfactory set of results beating our estimates due to higher than expected settlement and exchange services revenues. Still the average daily traded value recorded of €67.2m compared to €57.4m over the corresponding period last year (a 17.0% increase y-o-y) still lags of our call for €75mn in 2019 and our estimates for €100mn in 2020 and e110mn in 2021.

  • The company trades at a projected FY’19 PE ratio of 41.3 and EV/EBITDA multiple 16.5 which we consider demanding. We will update our model and come back with a detailed report. 

The following table summarizes Hellenic Exchanges Q3/9M’19 financial results vs our estimates: 

HELLENIC EXCHANGES 2018 2019 Y-o-Y 2019 Act. vs 2018 2019 Y-o-Y 2019 Act. vs
EUR m. (%) 9Μ est Est. Q3 Q3 (%) Q3 est Est.
Sales 19.9 25.5 28.2%  21.9 16.7%  5.2 11.3 116.5%  7.6 47.9% 
EBITDA 5.6 11.2 99.9%  7.7 44.8%  0.3 6.2 2371.2%  2.7 126.6% 
EBITDA Mrg 28.0%  43.7%  +1,568 bps  35.2%  24.0% 4.8%  54.6%  +4,983 bps  35.6%  53.2%
Net Income 2.3 5.9 157.3%  3.57 65.0%  -0.5 3.7 878.5%  1.3 174.3% 
Net Mrg 11.5%  23.1%  +1,157 bps  16.3%  41.3% -9.0%  32.3%  +4,125 bps  17.4%  85.5%

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