The company posted an improved set of Q3/9M’19 set of financial results beating our estimates on the top line by some €3.66mn. On a 9M basis, Sales before HCMC fee advanced by 28.2% to €25.54mn thanks to better than expected revenues from settlement and exchange services.
- This divergence in estimates fed through the entire P&L leading to a miss in all lines i.e. EBITDA, EBIT, EBT and NET income.
- Total operating expenses including ancillary services of the Group in 9M 2019 decreased by 0.6% to €13.5m compared to €13.6m in 9M 2018 and against our estimate of €13.3mn.
- Personnel costs decreased by 0.5% y-o-y to €7.6mn (we were calling for €7.3mn) while total other costs came in line with our call at €5.90mn (we were estimating €6.05mn).
EBITDA almost doubled to €11.16mn vs €5.58mn in the 9M’18 period, EBIT skyrocketed 166% to € 8.05mn (against €5.2mn which was our estimate and vs €3mn in 9M’18). Pretax profit came in at €8.3mn from €3.37mn in the respective period of 2018 (and beating by far our call for €5.53mn). On a final notch Net profit was 157% higher y-o-y to €3.57mn (we were guessing €3.6mn), beating by far last year’s €2.29mn figure.
A satisfactory set of results beating our estimates due to higher than expected settlement and exchange services revenues. Still the average daily traded value recorded of €67.2m compared to €57.4m over the corresponding period last year (a 17.0% increase y-o-y) still lags of our call for €75mn in 2019 and our estimates for €100mn in 2020 and e110mn in 2021.
- The company trades at a projected FY’19 PE ratio of 41.3 and EV/EBITDA multiple 16.5 which we consider demanding. We will update our model and come back with a detailed report.
The following table summarizes Hellenic Exchanges Q3/9M’19 financial results vs our estimates:
|HELLENIC EXCHANGES||2018||2019||Y-o-Y||2019||Act. vs||2018||2019||Y-o-Y||2019||Act. vs|
|EUR m.||9Μ||9Μ||(%)||9Μ est||Est.||Q3||Q3||(%)||Q3 est||Est.|
|EBITDA Mrg||28.0%||43.7%||+1,568 bps||35.2%||24.0%||4.8%||54.6%||+4,983 bps||35.6%||53.2%|
|Net Mrg||11.5%||23.1%||+1,157 bps||16.3%||41.3%||-9.0%||32.3%||+4,125 bps||17.4%||85.5%|