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ΟΠΑΠ – Euroxx- Challenges continue in Q2’20; Proposal of €0.30 FY’19 DPS

Q1’20 Results: Lock down period weighs on Performance and profitability, offsetting the positive start in Jan-Feb; Accounting for the pre-lock down period, Lottery dropped marginally by 0.8% y-o-y, Betting up by 3.2% and VLT’s expanded by 21.5% in the same period, on the back of maturing product profile; Increased contribution from Stoiximan & lower OpEx contain contraction on EBITDA line; FY’19 DPS distribution proposal to the upcoming AGM on June 25th at €0.30, on top of €1.0 already paid in February; Net Debt at €556 in Q1’20 (from €408.6m in FY’19), FCF in Q1’20 at €37m (from €52m in Q1’19)

OPAP’s Q4’19 results came in slightly below our call at GGR level, whereas regarding profitability, stood slightly above our estimates. In general, quarterly figures were negatively affected by the lock-down on OPAP stores, however accounting for the Jan-Feb period, OPAP registered l-f-l gains.

VLT’s registered the smoothest y-o-y GGR drop (€67m, -3% y-o-y), as this was the first quarter with all the 25k VLTs installed. Moreover, Lottery revenues (-19.4% y-o-y in Q1’20) were significantly impacted by soft KINO bets, while on the positive side, Joker’s contribution was strong, on the back of increased on-line penetration and favorable jackpot rollovers. Sports Betting also contracted by 13.5% y-o-y in Q1’20, while accounting only for the pre-lockdown period, betting GGR marked a y-o-y increase of 3.2%. Finally, Instants and Passives’ GGR in Q1’20 dropped by 43% to €19m.

All in, group Q1’20 GGR dropped by c17% y-o-y to €328m (Exx at €338m). Going down the P&L, group recurring EBITDA dropped by c15.6% y-o-y to €86m (Exx at 82m). Moreover, OPAP reported Net Profits of €36m from €57m in Q1’19, down 38% y-o-y (and 4.9% above our €34m call).

In Q1’20, OPAP’s FCF dropped to €37m from €52m a year ago, mainly due to the lower OpCf of €33m vs. €54m in Q1’19 (down by 39% y-o-y), while investing cash flows were positive at €3.6m vs outflows of €2.4m in Q1’19. Finally, Net debt increased by c€147m since FY’19 to €556m, while cash stood at €422m (from €634m in FY’19).

Conference Call tomorrow – at 16:00 local time (14:00 UK time). Dial in numbers: GR: +30 211 180 2000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 and USA: +1 516 447 5632. We expect the management to provide more details on the Covid-19 impact on Q2’20 performance, as well as OPAP’s performance following the gradual lifting of the restrictions.

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