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Τοις Μετρητοίς

ΟΠΑΠ:Δεν πείθει…

Μπορεί η έκδοση του ομολογιακού των 200 εκατομμθρίων να πήγε καλά και με επιτόκιο 2.10% παρόλα αυτά οι επενδυτές δεν φαίνονται να είναι και ιδιαίτερα χαρούμενοι με την μετοχή.

Η ζώνη του 760 δοκιμάζεται και είναι πολύ σημαντική στήριξη και πολύ κοντά στην πρόσφατη δημόσια πρόταση που δεν προχώρησε.

Το στοπ στο short βρισκεται στο 820 σε κλεισιμο ημέρας με το επίπεδο να είναι και κύρια αντίσταση.

EUROXX

OPAP Faced the Perfect Storm During H1’20… as its traditional and PLAY stores remained closed for 2 and 3 months, respectively, during the semester. Hence, despite certain actions to mitigate the lockdown impact, such as the launch of a 3rd draw per week on on- line Joker and the containment of fixed costs (c40% of total OpEx), H1’20 GGR and EBITDA inevitably landed to €508m (down 34.8% y- o-y) and €110m (down 42.3% y-o-y), respectively.

…and Still Encounters Challenges in H2’20e: Following a strong kick-start after the reopening (June-July GGR up 6.1% y-o-y), the soft macro environment, the social distancing measures on OPAP’s stores and the decreased tourist flows weighed on August performance (-2.1%). However, despite the temporary setbacks, OPAP moves forward with its on-line strategy, further increasing its participation in Kaizen’s Stoiximan Greek-Cypriot ops to 84.5%, while expecting to benefit from the conclusion of the new on-line gaming framework (reportedly, 14 competitors expressed interest out of 24 currently operating). Overall, we expect OPAP’s on-line ops, based on its dual strategy (own brand name and Stoiximan) to be its key earnings growth pillar, driving future performance and acting as a natural hedge on its land-based activities

Forecast Revisions: Heavy Net Profit Downgrades (53%) for 2020e, More Moderate (c19%) Going Forward – driven by (a) the downgrades in GGR estimates, (b) the higher net financials in 2020- 22e due to the elevated debt, and (c) the delay of the full consolidation of Stoiximan (now expected in early 2021e), which are only partially offset by the lower OpEx. Moreover, CapEx is now seen dropping to maintenance levels, following the conclusion of the Stoiximan acquisition at end-2020. Overall, we now forecast GGR to grow by a 2019-22e CAGR of 4.7%, mainly owing to the boost from Stoiximan and the VLTs contribution, which more than offset the soft performance of Legacy Games. The 15% higher GGR over 2019- 22e leads to an adj. net profit CAGR of 3.5% over the same period (adj. EPS CAGR flattish due to the dividend reinvestment).

Remains  at O/W / TP Cut to €11.60 (49% Total Upside) – from €14.00, mainly due to our earnings downgrades and the higher WACC assumption (now at 7.5% from 7.0% previously). Valuation wise, OPAP currently trades at a 2020e EV/EBITDA of 11.4x, which implies a 41% premium to the historic 2010-19 average of 8.1x and 18% against peers. Overall, we favour OPAP due to the completion of its major CapEx cycle, which together with the lower cost structure (post IT transformation) enhance FCF, hence allowing significant shareholder returns. On top, the maturity of its VLT ops, the successful execution of its dual on-line strategy, as well as the improving domestic macro backdrop offer a good earnings growth momentum. Finally, a mutually beneficial deal with the Greek State over the 2011 agreement to pre-pay GGR tax over the 2020-30e period is also a key valuation catalyst, in our view (potentially worth c€2/share on our estimates).

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