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ALPHA FINANCE:Greek banks Q3 20 Results Review

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Profitability 

The aggregate NII improved 1% qoq driven mainly by lower cost of funding and partly offset by lower loan interest income. Core PPI improved by 3% qoq, despite a 2% qoq pickup on opex, as fees income supported operating income which grew 4%. Reported PPI improved by 6% qoq. 

Liquidity and Asset Quality 

Aggregate Eurosystem funding increased to €39.4bn from €37.4bn in Q2 20, as banks tapped increased ECB-offered liquidity at negative rates (at -0.5% to – 1%). The total NPEs stock fell €1bn qoq to €60bn, with the NPEs ratio at 34.6%, down from 35.5%, and with cash coverage at 48.5%, unchanged qoq. Capital. CET 1 capital for the system was shaped at €25bn, unchanged qoq, with the CET 1 ratio at 15.1%, virtually flat qoq, on RWAs of €166bn, down €1bn qoq. 

Points to remember 

Mgmt teams guided for 15-25% defaults on PE loans under moratoria (>€17bn in total), which should imply roughly €4.6bn of flows, partly offset by curings/debt forgiveness/liquidations.This would likely result in net formation which should not derail the NPEs reduction progress already under schedule. 

Valuation 

The 4 systemic banks trade on 0.23x TBV on average. On a per bank basis, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank, NBG and Eurobank Holds trade on 0.16x, 0.10x, 0.31x and 0.39x TBV Q3 20 respectively. Against their European peers, they trade on average at a 58% discount on P/TBV terms.

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