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Greek Banks: Q2 19 Results Preview

Greek banks are scheduled to report Q2 19 results by the end of August, with Alpha Bank on Aug 29, NBG on Aug 29, Eurobank on Aug 30, and Piraeus Bank on Aug 30.

Profitability. In brief, we expect top line trends to resemble the previous quarter with stable or slightly up NII qoq, strong adj. operating income boosted by higher fees and trading/other gains and generally profitable bottom line. Capital.Capital levels should be slightly up qoq, mainly due to positive P&L result and a boost from GGBs gains (partly flowing through the equity). Balance Sheet. NPEs stock should fall qoq mainly on light negative formation and sales/securitizations. Deposits should be up qoq as Greek inflows continue on a light but positive trend.

On a per bank basis:

Eurobank is expected to include Grivalia and Piraeus Bank Bulgaria in its numbers, thus distorting somewhat qoq comps. Generally, we expect a slightly profitable quarter with flattish NII qoq, higher fees and other income, higher opex qoq, higher provisions qoq (on Pillar transaction) and higher net income qoq.

Piraeus Bank is expected to exhibit flattish NII trends qoq, higher oper. income qoq on robust fees income, and despite higher expected opex on one-offs, lower LLPs will likely lead to higher profitability qoq.

NBG is expected to post flattish NII qoq, lower operating income (on Q1 one-off), flattish LLPs and a profitable Q2 with about €80mn at the bottom line.

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