A Greece that – in highly uncertain international conditions – will grow faster than its European partners, even as many other economies retreat, outlines a new Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) “Economic Outlook” report released today.
The Greek economy is forecast to grow steadily at a rate of 2% in 2025, reaching 2.1% in 2026.
These forecasts are significantly higher than those for the Eurozone (0.8% in 2024, 1.0% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026) and the OECD countries as a whole (1.8% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026), which shows that Greece is constantly facing external risks (international slowdown due to trade tariffs at this stage) but seems to be holding up.
On the domestic front too, however, although it presents a picture of a dynamic recovery, Greece has to manage persistent inflationary pressures, chronic labour market pathologies, productivity deficits and needs to accelerate structural reforms to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth, drawing on significant resources from the EU.
Cautious growth
Based on the new OECD forecasts (OECD Economic Outlook 117, June 2025), the Greek economy is entering a phase of milder but steady growth, with key parameters being as follows:
– the country’s GDP is projected to grow by 2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, a rate clearly lower than in the first years after the pandemic, but affected by the slowdown observed in the rest of Europe. The OECD notes that private consumption will continue to grow, albeit at a declining rate (1.2% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026), while public spending will remain subdued.
– the government debt is on a downward trend, but remains very high (155.9% of GDP in 2026 according to the OECD), which calls for caution in fiscal policy making and continued reform vigilance, especially in the area of spending and taxation. The OECD forecasts small deficits in general government in the coming years (0.2% of GDP), stressing the importance of balanced budgets with a social dimension.
– investment activity strengthens significantly, with gross fixed investment rising by 9.3% in 2025 and 8.1% in 2026, largely supported by Recovery Fund capital. This is a key driver for the modernisation of the production model, although the sustainability of these investments beyond one-off European support remains a challenge.
– unemployment is expected to continue to decelerate, reaching 9.2% in 2025 and 9.1% in 2026, down from 10.1% in 2023.
– inflation (CPI) is estimated to hover around 2.5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, returning to more manageable levels after the pressures of recent years.
– the current account remains in deficit (around -5% of GDP by 2026) despite a boom in exports in recent years, pointing to the need to boost both extraversion and domestic production.
Reforms
The OECD forecasts underline that the Greek economy has finally left the crisis period behind, but the “bet” of sustained growth has not yet been won. The OECD recommends structural changes for the business sector, targeted investments in production and labour skills, and careful fiscal management in order to shield the country and ensure the prosperity of future generations.
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