Greece is showing the fastest decline in public debt internationally, according to the latest UBS Global Economics & Markets Outlook (GEMO) report for 2026-2027.
While the country still carries one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios, its rate of debt reduction is the strongest worldwide, driven by steady fiscal improvements, robust economic growth, and a positive primary budget balance.
UBS projects Greece’s economic growth at 2.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027—slightly above current forecasts for 2026 and just below them for 2027. Inflation is expected to average 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, indicating a gradual return to normal levels.
The report highlights that Greece is better positioned than many other countries when it comes to debt sustainability. This advantage comes from a favorable combination of growth rates, interest rates, and fiscal discipline. In contrast, countries like Brazil, Poland, Germany, and the US face the need for significant fiscal adjustments to stabilize their debt levels. Specifically for the US, UBS notes that while tariff revenues have temporarily eased debt pressures, future debt dynamics will largely depend on how interest rates and economic growth evolve.
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