For the second consecutive session, the Athens Stock Exchange retreated sharply on Thursday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East and a renewed surge in oil prices brought heavy selling pressure back to the market. The General Index closed at 2,130.37 points, shedding 53.07 points (-2.43%), with the banking sector once again bearing the brunt of the sell-off. Total turnover reached €272.07 million — markedly elevated compared to recent quieter sessions, reflecting the intensity of selling activity.
Session Snapshot: Numbers Tell a Painful Story
The day opened near the previous close of 2,183 points and followed an unrelenting downward path throughout the session. The intraday range spanned approximately 2,125 to 2,183 points, with the market closing near its lows of the day.
- FTSE Large Cap: 5,403.34 pts | -151.88 (-2.73%) — blue chips underperformed even the benchmark, reflecting concentrated selling in top-tier names.
- Banking Index (ΔΤΡ): 2,334.86 pts | -114.86 (-4.69%) — the steepest sectoral loss of the session by a wide margin.
- FTSE Financials (FTSE_FS): 10,920.16 pts | -533.78 (-4.66%)
- FTSEA (Mid Cap): 1,271.65 pts | -37.15 (-2.84%)
- Turnover: €272.07 million — elevated volumes accompanying a declining market represent a technically negative confirmation signal.
Stock Movers: Banks Lead the Rout
The banking sector delivered the session’s most dramatic moves. Eurobank led large-cap declines, falling -6.06% to €3.425. National Bank of Greece dropped -5.77% to €12.83, Piraeus Bank shed -4.84% to €7.28, and Alpha Bank lost -4.37% to €3.39.
Beyond banks, losses were broad-based across the blue-chip universe. Viohalco (BOCHGR) fell -3.58% to €8.62. OPAP declined -1.80% to €14.69, OTE lost -1.89% to €17.17, Titan Cement dropped -1.74%, DEH slipped -0.80%, and Metlen (MTLN) fell -0.71% to €36.54.
The sole standout in an otherwise uniformly red board was GEK TERNA, which gained +0.34% to €35.12 — a stock analysts broadly classify as one of the market’s more defensive plays given its diversified exposure to renewables and infrastructure.
Technical Picture: The 200-Day Moving Average Comes into Focus
Thursday’s -2.43% loss returns the market to critical technical territory, erasing much of the relief provided by Tuesday’s strong +3.62% rebound and Wednesday’s modest stabilization. The key question now is whether the index can hold above its 200-day moving average.
The 200-day MA currently sits in the 2,050–2,080 range. With the General Index closing at 2,130.37, the buffer above this long-term support has shrunk to just 50–80 points. A further decline of around 2% in a single session could bring the index right to the doorstep of this level. A break below the 200-day MA would represent a serious deterioration in the medium-term outlook — a development that has not occurred since September 2022.
The 50-day MA lies considerably above current prices, illustrating the scale of short-term technical damage inflicted over the past two weeks. For momentum to recover, the index must first stabilize above 2,150 points, then challenge the key resistance zone of 2,200–2,236 points — the threshold that would signal a credible short-term reversal.
The nearest support is the psychologically significant 2,100 level, which could be tested if international conditions deteriorate further. The stronger floor remains at the 200-day MA (2,050–2,080), a level medium-term investors are watching very closely.
The 14-day RSI, which had entered oversold territory (near 30) during the early-March sell-off, recovered somewhat following Tuesday’s rally but is now being driven lower again. Current estimates place it in the 35–42 range — a neutral-to-weak zone that does not yet support reliable buy signals.
Crucially, today’s elevated turnover accompanying the decline is a classically negative technical signal: high-volume selling days are associated with continuation of downward trends rather than exhaustion. The market remains heavily hostage to external factors — chiefly Middle East developments and energy prices — with technical analysis serving as a navigation guide in an environment of exceptional volatility.
International Context: The Iran War, Oil, and a Shaken Wall Street
The dominant driver for global markets on Thursday was the continued escalation of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — who assumed the role on March 9 — declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Fresh strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf intensified supply disruption fears, with Iran warning that crude could reach $200 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency responded with the largest emergency reserve release in its history — 400 million barrels — but the move failed to contain prices. Brent crude approached $100 per barrel, while WTI exceeded $95, stoking fears of a prolonged stagflationary shock to the global economy.
European equities struggled throughout the session. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell approximately 0.7%, with bank stocks under particular pressure amid concerns over regional exposure. The UK’s FTSE was also subdued as energy price volatility bit into sentiment across the continent.
On Wall Street, the mood was similarly grim during European hours. The Dow Jones shed around 611 points (-1.3%), the S&P 500 dropped -1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell -1.7% as energy-driven stagflation concerns dominated. Compounding the anxiety, the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February — a stark miss versus expectations for 55,000 gains — raising the spectre of a weak labor market colliding with resurging inflation.
On the Federal Reserve front, February CPI came in at 2.4% year-on-year — the last inflation reading before the energy shock hit. Markets are not pricing in rate cuts anytime soon: Treasury yields have risen across the curve this week, reflecting expectations that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer given the renewed inflationary impulse from oil. Strategists broadly agree that the central bank will not move toward easing until there is meaningful clarity on the conflict’s duration and energy price trajectory.
Expert Views: Defensive Positioning in a Low-Visibility Environment
Optima Research identifies the duration and intensity of the conflict as the central variable for investors. The firm notes that for Greece specifically, every $10 rise in oil per barrel reduces GDP by approximately 0.15%, underlining the economy’s particular sensitivity to energy price shocks through its trade balance.
AXIA – Alpha Finance emphasizes a sector-differentiation strategy within the Greek market. Analysts advise distinguishing between companies with defensive characteristics and those with significant exposure to energy, transport, and regional demand disruption. Stocks cited as relatively defensive include OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, GEK TERNA, Cenergy, ADMIE, and EYDAP.
Eurobank Equities maintains a full-year upside target of 16% for the General Index, pointing out that Greek equities continue to trade at a discount to European peers, with a P/E of 10.4x and a dividend yield of 4.5%. The firm retains an overweight stance on the banking sector, particularly for the first half of 2026.
JP Morgan keeps an overweight recommendation on all four systemic Greek banks, with a particular preference for National Bank of Greece. The U.S. bank argues that Greek lenders entered this geopolitical storm with the strongest balance sheets in over a decade, providing greater resilience compared to many of their European counterparts.
Bank of America continues to rank the Athens market among the most attractive in the broader EEMEA region, citing a compelling combination of valuations, dividend yields, and earnings prospects. Meanwhile, Scope Ratings notes that Greek banks entered 2026 with their strongest balance sheets since the European debt crisis era, while Moody’s expects sector profitability to remain robust through 2026–2027, with non-performing exposures now approaching pan-European norms.
The consensus across analyst desks: the long-term investment case for Greek equities remains intact, but near-term visibility is low. The war’s duration and the evolution of energy prices will ultimately determine whether the current correction deepens into a more severe test — or whether it represents an entry opportunity for investors with a medium-term horizon.