CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, has revealed that investors in derivatives markets are becoming increasingly optimistic ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.
According to the company’s latest report, market positioning has shifted significantly, particularly with Bitcoin regaining the $70,000 level.
The report states that as Bitcoin rose above $70,000, a significant number of short positions were liquidated, and new long positions were opened above the $73,000 level. According to the analysis company, this indicates that investors’ expectations of a short-term bullish trend have strengthened. It is noted that long positions have now become dominant in the Perpetual futures market.
Futures data also supports this optimism. Bitcoin funding rates have turned from negative to positive, while Ethereum funding rates remain positive. This indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium to maintain their long positions.
On the other hand, buyers also dominate in terms of trading volume. The fact that the taker buy/sell volume ratio has risen above 1 for both Bitcoin and Ethereum reveals that buy transactions have been more dominant than sell transactions since mid-March. This indicates that the expectation of a short-term price increase in the market is strengthening.
However, the report also points to some risks despite the bullish expectations. A significant increase in the amount of $BTC flowing into exchanges has been observed alongside the rise in Bitcoin’s price. The fact that 63% of these hourly inflows, reaching 6,100 $BTC, came from large investors is considered a signal that historically indicates a potential increase in selling pressure.
It is also noted that Bitcoin may face strong resistance in the $75,000 to $85,000 range in the coming period. These levels are said to correspond to the on-chain cost basis of investors and have acted as resistance in the past, particularly during bear market rallies. Therefore, a warning is issued that any upward movement may be limited if selling pressure increases.
*This is not investment advice.