The war in Iran threatens to deal a serious blow to the Gulf’s largest economies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, if it does not end soon.
Qatar and Kuwait could see their GDP shrink by 14% this year if the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until April, according to Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa.
This would mark the worst economic downturn for these countries since the early 1990s, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait triggered the Gulf War and caused turmoil in global oil markets.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are expected to fare better, given their ability to redirect oil flows away from the critical Hormuz maritime route, but they will likely still see GDP declines of around 3% and 5% respectively—the biggest economic hit since the 2020 pandemic.
The conflict shows no signs of easing, with Iran continuing attacks on neighboring countries across the region in retaliation for strikes by the United States and Israel.
The United States struck military installations at Iran’s crude oil export hub on Kharg Island and warned it would target energy facilities if Tehran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the “chokepoint” through which roughly one-fifth of global oil exports flows. Donald Trump also told reporters that the US is in talks with “about seven countries” to form a coalition aimed at securing the strait and escorting ships, a move the EU has rejected.
Brent crude continued its volatile rise, remaining above $100 per barrel. Futures have surged by more than 40% over the past two weeks.
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