Metlen is estimated to be in a strong position to perform in a broadly volatile energy market environment, as the rise in natural gas prices can translate into higher wholesale electricity prices and strengthen the profit margins of the group’s highly efficient power generation segment.
In an analysis of the global metallurgy sector dated April 1st, Berenberg ranks Metlen among its top picks, alongside companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Glencore, upgrading its price target for the stock to €61 (from €59), while maintaining a “buy” recommendation.
Within the report titled “What to watch in Q1,” it is noted that Metlen Energy & Metals is expected to announce, with a delay, its FY2025 results on April 9. Estimates point to revenues of €7.36 billion, EBITDA of €747 million, net profits of €336 million, earnings per share of €2.18, and net debt at year-end of €2.93 billion.
At the same time, the company is expected to reassure the market that current challenges are limited and do not affect its core business targets or its medium-term EBITDA goal of €1.9–2.08 billion, which is expected to be achieved by fiscal year 2029.
The positive outlook is further supported by the fact that the Metals division is expected to benefit from the group’s own energy production, while also gaining from the 14% increase in aluminium prices since the beginning of the year, a development linked to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar against the euro is also supportive for the segment.
In terms of valuation, Berenberg updates its model incorporating new commodity price targets, leading to an upward revision of estimates. It maintains a “buy” rating and raises the price target to €61.00, while emphasizing that confirmation of forecasts remains a key factor.
For 2026, projections indicate turnover of €7.924 billion, EBITDA of €1.142 billion, EPS of €4.21, and net profits of €601 million. Net profits are expected to rise to €834 million in 2027 and to €1.152 billion in 2028.
The company’s business model is characterized by a high degree of integration and strong synergies between activities, forming a resilient and competitive structure with an improving cost-benefit profile.
These synergies help maintain low operating costs, making the company competitive across all its markets, even during periods of high natural gas prices in Europe. At the same time, its expertise supports an expanding self-financing model through asset rotation in the renewable energy sector.
Metlen appears capable of performing both in environments of high and volatile prices as well as in low energy price conditions, while it is also expected to benefit from rising carbon prices.
The company’s valuation is based on a SOTP methodology, which takes into account comparable EV/EBITDA multiples of peer companies as well as DCF valuations for individual business segments.
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