“Availability” is now the key word in the energy market, as the world holds its breath ahead of the expiration of Trump’s ultimatum at 3:00 a.m. Wednesday (Greek time). At 19:00 Greek time, U.S. crude stood at $114.2 per barrel, while North Sea oil (Brent, i.e. the European benchmark) was lower, just above $109 per barrel—whereas the opposite is usually the case.
The reversal in price levels is due to the fact that many more buyers are willing to pay a premium to access U.S. oil—for example, countries in Southeast Asia, which until the start of the conflict in Iran were heavily dependent (up to 70% for countries like South Korea) on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. The shortage of supply is evident in the fact that Russian oil—after Trump temporarily lifted sanctions—has become the most expensive among all crude types; in last Friday’s trading, it reached $121 per barrel.
At the same time, natural gas prices reached €52.38 per MWh on the European market at 19:15, nearly 100% higher than mid-December 2025, when they were around €27 per MWh. Meanwhile, gas storage levels are declining daily—falling to 28% across Europe. It is noted that the TTF price—as the most expensive fuel in the mix—plays a decisive role in shaping electricity prices in the European market.
At the same time, warnings from international institutions about the U.S. economy are increasing. Moody’s reports that U.S. labor market data signal a looming recession, while others, such as TS Lombard, predict either stagflation or even accelerated growth driven by disruptions in the Middle East supply chain. Meanwhile, JPMorgan warns Americans that gasoline prices could exceed $5 per gallon, up from $2.8 at the start of the year.
Nevertheless, given the circumstances—with Trump threatening to send Iran “back to the Stone Age” and Iranian leaders declaring a halt to all diplomatic contacts, even indirect ones, with the U.S.—markets are behaving with relative calm. This may indicate expectations that after the sharp verbal escalation, some form of de-escalation could follow.
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