The publication by Eurostat and ELSTAT of Greece’s stronger-than-expected fiscal performance in 2025 compared to budget targets opens the door for the preparation of a new relief package to be announced by the government at the Thessaloniki International Fair this coming September.
The new €500 million support measures announced by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis immediately after the disclosure of the 2025 primary surplus last Wednesday constitute the first step in the government’s broader plan to return positive fiscal performance to society this year and in 2027.
Part of this plan includes the Prime Minister’s announcements at TIF, the scope of which is beginning to take shape following confirmation of the increase in the 2025 primary surplus to 4.9% of GDP, compared to the previous target of 3.7%. Based on these figures, a total fiscal space of €1.7 billion is being formed (after accounting for public spending constraints) for this year and next.
Of this amount, €500 million is covered by the measures already announced by the Prime Minister and specified by the Minister of National Economy and Finance, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, last week (expanded rent refunds, €150 for families with children, increase to €300 for pensioner support, etc.). This leaves €1.2 billion, of which €200 million will be allocated to new support measures this year and another €1 billion will relate to announcements for 2027.
Behind the government’s plan is the strong performance of the Greek economy, combined with positive results from measures to combat tax evasion. Despite the high costs caused by the energy crisis linked to the war in Iran, Greece’s growth rate is expected to remain around 2% this year, after a revision from the initial 2.4% target, as announced by the Ministry of National Economy and Finance. Any downward revision for this year is expected to be offset by an upward revision of the 2027 growth rate to 2% from the initial 1.7% forecast.
These adjustments also lead to an even higher primary surplus for 2026. For this reason, the new target set by the Ministry for the 2026 primary surplus is 3.2% of GDP, up from 2.8%. The same 3.2% of GDP target is set for 2027. Estimates for public debt have also improved, now projected at 136.8% of GDP this year (down from 138.2%) and 130.3% in 2027.
In the coming period, depending on developments in the war and based on the fiscal data announced, the Ministry will finalize the composition of the TIF support measures. The government’s intention, as already stated, is for a key pillar of this package to be measures supporting businesses and professionals.
Among the measures expected to be examined are:
- The abolition of the business tax (end-of-practice fee) for companies, a key demand of the market. It is noted that this tax has already been abolished for self-employed professionals as of 2025.
- A reduction in the advance tax payment rate for small and medium-sized enterprises. This rate currently stands at 80% of the income tax based on the previous year’s profits, while for newly established businesses it is 50% for the first three years.
- A further reduction in employer social security contributions in 2027, beyond the already announced half-percentage-point cut.
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