Bitcoin may be holding strong above major psychological levels, but the market still lacks the scale of capital inflows needed to trigger a true full-scale bull run. While short-term moves can be driven by leverage and speculative positioning, a true bull run historically requires deep, consistent liquidity from institutions, funds, and new retail participants entering the market.
The Liquidity Gap Preventing Bitcoin From Full Expansion
Bitcoin still requires significantly stronger capital inflows to confirm the start of a true bull market, as current on-chain signals suggest momentum remains insufficient. The founder and CEO of Alphractal, Joao Wedson, highlighted on X that a key metric to watch is the realized market capitalization impulse, which is currently hovering just below the neutral 0 level, a zone now acting as temporary resistance.
If the metric fails to reclaim and hold above 0, it would signal fading market inflows, increasing the probability that $BTC could revisit lower price levels in the coming months. However, a decisive move back above 0 would suggest that fresh money is re-entering the network, potentially marking the beginning of a shorter, more compressed bear cycle moving toward upside momentum.
For now, with the indicator still below this critical threshold, Joao cautions that it remains too early to declare the start of a new bull run. Despite market optimism, the data suggest that the necessary foundation of strong capital inflows has not fully materialized to sustain an upside move.
Is Bitcoin Entering The Early Stages Of A Trend Reversal?
Bitcoin is starting to show early signs of structural weakness after struggling to maintain strong bullish momentum at a major resistance zone. A crypto trader known as CGT Trader has noted that during the recent rally, $BTC rarely formed consecutive lower highs, and when it did form lower highs, it was unusually limited to a single occurrence before the next continuation to the upside.
Currently, the price action is starting to deviate from that pattern. $BTC is still trading sideways within a major resistance zone, and the price has already formed three consecutive lower highs without making a lower low.
CGT Trader explained that the market structure is not fully bearish because $BTC has still not confirmed lower lows. However, the repeated inability to reclaim higher levels suggests the uptrend may be losing strength as buyers struggle to sustain momentum.
The critical level to watch is whether $BTC begins printing lower lows alongside these lower highs. Meanwhile, if that formation occurs, it would signal a clear shift in market structure, potentially marking the end of the bull trap and the beginning of a broader high-time frame downtrend.