The significant improvement in refining conditions, as well as Motor Oil’s strong cash flow generation, is incorporated by NBG Securities in its new estimates for the group. The brokerage raises its target price to €51 per share, from €41 previously, maintaining its “outperform” recommendation.
The new valuation implies a 28% upside compared to the price of €39.88 on June 12, and the brokerage notes that the €10 per share upgrade is mainly driven by a strong increase in earnings forecasts for the 2026–2028 period.
Refining changes the outlook
The first-quarter performance was the main reason for the revision. Motor Oil’s adjusted refining margin reached $138 per ton, compared to $61 in the same period last year and $116 in Q4 2025.
This improvement, combined with higher sales volumes, led adjusted operating profits to €381 million, up 76% year-on-year. The performance exceeded both NBG Securities’ estimates and market consensus forecasts.
Adjusted net profits reached €203 million, more than double compared to Q1 2025. Management also stated that benchmark margins remained at high levels during April and May, mainly due to limited supply of middle distillates.
Motor Oil also managed to fully replace, as of March, the Iraqi crude volumes that were unavailable, without any disruption in refinery supply.
€821 million profit in 2026
Based on the new data, NBG Securities increases its forecast for 2026 adjusted operating profits by 37%. Revisions for 2027 and 2028 range between 17% and 21%.
For the full year 2026, adjusted operating profits are expected at €1.42 billion, while adjusted net profits are projected at €821 million, up 8.5% year-on-year. The previous estimate had forecast a 22% decline in net profits.
Earnings per share are raised to €7.41 from €5.26 for 2026. For 2027, they are revised to €6.37 from €5.40, and for 2028 to €6.27 from €5.57.
NBG Securities expects refining margins to decline from the exceptionally high levels of 2026 in the following years. Despite this normalization, it forecasts annual net profits of around €700 million, specifically €706 million in 2027 and €694 million in 2028.
Strong cash flows and lower debt
Particular emphasis is placed on cash generation. Free cash flows amounted to €378 million in Q1, compared to negative €286 million a year earlier.
This development reduced net debt to €1.26 billion at the end of March, from €1.58 billion at the end of 2025. The brokerage forecasts further reduction to €1.25 billion in 2026, €1 billion in 2027, and €687 million in 2028.
Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA is expected at 0.9x in 2026, falling to 0.5x in 2028.
The improvement in the balance sheet also supports dividend policy. For 2026, a total dividend of €2 per share is projected, the highest in Motor Oil’s history, with a yield of 5%. For 2027 and 2028, the estimate stands at €1.80 per share.
The PPC transaction
The agreement with PPC regarding the renewable energy portfolio is considered value-neutral. It includes the sale of 107 MW of wind farms and the remaining 51% of UNAGI in photovoltaic projects under development totaling 1,175 MW.
At the same time, Motor Oil acquires the remaining 25% of UNAGI, with total consideration amounting to €237 million. According to NBG Securities, the transaction reduces future capital expenditure and strengthens the group’s focus on wind projects and energy storage.
The €51 target price is based on an equal weighting of two valuation methods. The discounted cash flow valuation gives €49.50 per share, while the sum-of-the-parts valuation results in €52.50. For 2026, Motor Oil trades at an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 3.6x, below its 10-year average of 4.8x.
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