Crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday, capping a week of heavy losses as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover and fears of major global supply disruptions eased. Despite a fresh attack on a commercial vessel near the coast of Oman, markets believe crude shipments are increasingly moving through the strategic waterway.
Brent crude dropped 4.34% to settle at $71.99 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 3.74% to $69.23 per barrel. For the week, Brent lost 10.86% and WTI 9.62%, as investors moved away from expectations of severe supply shortages following the agreement on a 60-day ceasefire.
“There is growing confidence that oil will continue flowing through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. He noted that before the ceasefire agreement, markets feared supply would be insufficient to meet demand, but those concerns are now fading.
Echoing that view, Tamas Varga of PVM said the dominant market expectation remains that the global oil market is heading toward oversupply. Flynn went even further, predicting a “flood” of both crude oil and refined petroleum products.
Further evidence of improving supply came as Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings on Friday from its Ras Tanura export terminal in the Persian Gulf after an interruption of nearly four months. According to LSEG data, two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each capable of transporting two million barrels of oil, loaded cargoes while a third tanker waited offshore.
June Goh of Sparta Commodities attributed the latest sell-off to the increasing number of cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz, while noting that Chinese oil demand remains subdued and has yet to recover.
The decline followed Thursday’s rally of more than 2%, when both benchmarks rose after a commercial vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman. The incident prompted the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to suspend its voluntary regional evacuation programme.
Two U.S. officials told Reuters that the commercial vessel came under Iranian fire while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, meanwhile, warned that they could not guarantee the safety of ships sailing outside designated maritime corridors.
On Friday, Tehran reiterated that it reserves the right to regulate navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Gulf states against aligning themselves with the United States.
In a parallel development, Oman informed European officials on Friday that it does not believe a return to the pre-war operating regime in the Strait of Hormuz is realistic. According to people familiar with the discussions, vessels using the strategic waterway may eventually be required to pay transit fees.
Data released on Thursday showed crude shipments through the Strait climbed this week to their highest level since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in late February. Although traffic has improved following the ceasefire, overall volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels.
Meanwhile, Russia is considering imposing a diesel export ban for several months, according to state news agency TASS. The country is facing fuel shortages after extensive Ukrainian drone attacks damaged refineries and energy infrastructure.
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