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Motor Oil-EUROXX

Q1’20 results: Maintenance in the refineries, lower utilization rates due to sweeter crudes feedstock and lock-down during the 2nd half of March weigh on performance; Decreased sales vol’s more than offset the positive impact from the improved y-o-y refining margins, thus burdening operating profitability; Consequently, adjusted profitability at EBITDA level lower by c26% y-o-y in Q1’20; Marketing segment continues to improve despite the pandemic headwinds, extending the segmental EBITDA adj. by 62% y-o-y to €36m; Group Inventory Losses of €170m (€40m of which corresponding to the Marketing segment) due to bottoming crude oil prices during March;

Motor Oil announced today amc its Q1’20 results, which came in below our estimates across-the-board on softer than-expected production volumes due to maintenance on the FCC, the lower utilization rates in the refinery and to the negative impact of the Covid-19 on demand.

In particular, Q1’20 volume sales settled at 2.627kMt (-23.4% y-o-y), due to maintenance works, sweeter feedstock mix (which leads to lower capacity utilizations rates) and to the decreased demand in March. Additionally, MOH’s realized adjusted refining margin improved y-o-y in Q1’20 to US$57.9/bbl vs US$55.4/bbl in Q1’19, while the respective reported margin tumbled to negative ground to US$-8.1/bbl vs US$78.9/bbl in Q1’19. As a result, Q1’20 adjusted EBITDA came in at €93m (vs. €125.5m in Q1’19), while the reported figure suffered €170m inventory losses, thus shaping at €-77m (vs. €190m a year ago). Regarding bottom line results, MOH reported net losses of €96m vs. profits of €106m in Q1’19, while adjusting for the aforementioned inventory losses, adjusted net profit settled at €33m (down 42.7% y-o-y), also burdened by the higher y-o-y depreciation and losses from associates.

With respect to the performance of the main markets for Motor Oil, we note that the exports were severely hit during Q1’20, dropping by 26% y-o-y (accounting for 68% of total vs. 71% in Q1’19), domestic sales were also down by 18% y-o-y while shipping and aviation markets contained their y-o-y sales decrease to -12%. Regarding the product mix, there was a notable decrease on Fuel oils in terms of volumes produced (13% of total in Q1’20 vs. 22% a year ago), while Diesel and Gas oils extended their share to 39% from 34%.

 Group Net debt rose at €908m from €354m in FY’19, while parent’s position turned net debt at €506m from net cash of €23m. in FY’19 Finally, capex needs for the parent amounted to €40m in Q1’20 (vs. €22m in Q1’19), while according to MOH’s guidance is expected to reach €210m in FY’20e (from €101m in FY’19).

As a reminder, the BoD will propose to the group AGM (to be held on June 17th) a FY’19 DPS of €1.15 (Exx and previous year at €1.30); final DPS at €0.80 (div. yield: 5.1% on yesterday’s closing, ex-date set for June 24), as MOH has already distributed an interim DPS of €0.35. The company will hold a Conference Call tomorrow at 17.30 local time.

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